Secret History #2: How Societies Collapse

French economist Thomas Piketty developed this theory in “Capital in the 21st Century,” analyzing how capitalism evolves through distinct phases as societies mature.

Historian Peter Turchin developed this theory after decades studying why societies collapse, analyzing the Roman Empire, French Revolution, and numerous civilizations throughout history.

American scientist James B. Calhoun conducted these experiments for 20 years post-WWII, seeking to understand what abundance, wealth, and security meant for rapidly growing populations during the Cold War era.

German philosopher Oswald Spengler proposed this theory, arguing civilizations follow biological life cycles—birth, growth, maturity, death—just as inevitably as humans age.

Elite founding families—perhaps 100-200 families like those controlling the Roman Empire—maintain power across generations through three synchronized mechanisms rather than brute force alone.

Elite families (owners), the professional managerial class or PMC—also called middle class, scholar-officials, or petty bourgeoisie (managers), and the masses (workers) comprise society’s three-tier structure.

The professional managerial class (PMC)—lawyers, bureaucrats, professionals—collect rents not through production but through gatekeeping power positions. They’re the middle class caught between elite owners and worker masses.

All complex societies traverse these phases—1950s America and China both operated as open democracies despite different political labels, demonstrating phases transcend ideology.