Is China's Coronavirus the Next Pandemic?

China battling new and rapidly spreading respiratory virus with thousands infected, hundreds dead, World Health Organization declaring state of emergency saying global risk is now high.

Coronaviruses zoonotic diseases transmitted from animals to people, viruses usually only infect animals and rarely make jump to humans but if they do it’s bad.

Coronaviruses large viruses enveloped in lipids containing single-stranded RNA infecting host cells to reproduce requiring cellular machinery for replication.

Viruses contain nucleic acid genomes like all cell-based life enabling genetic variation and evolution into new forms despite non-living classification.

Wuhan coronavirus usually gives victims upper respiratory tract illness, for those with weakened immune system including elderly and very young can lead to deadly pneumonia.

Most devastating virus outbreaks originated in bats including Ebola MERS and SARS, however direct transmission from bats to humans is rare with jump usually occurring through intermediate animal reservoir.

With other virus epidemics like SARS the animal intermediates were civets which were being sold in wet markets in China providing transmission pathway to humans.

Wet markets poorly regulated places where people and live and dead wild animals like porcupines crocodiles snakes in close contact making it all too easy for virus to make interspecies jump.

In case of Wuhan virus scientists now think intermediary species could be Chinese cobra due to genetic similarity between virus genome and snake genome.

Pandemic is when disease spreads across wide geographical area affecting many people, if it infects people quickly pandemic can reach nearly every corner of globe.

Wuhan coronavirus already made jump from animal host into human hosts, scientists now reporting it can definitely spread between people and its spread is accelerating.

1918 influenza pandemic also known as Spanish flu most severe pandemic in recent history perhaps of all time with 500 million people or one third of world’s population infected and estimated 50 to 100 million people worldwide died.

Spanish flu ticked two boxes of what makes truly catastrophic pandemic: it spread easily and it killed easily representing dual threat of high transmissibility and high lethality.

Part of reason for Spanish flu devastation had to do with particular state of world at time with crowded conditions, movement of troops, spread-thin healthcare workers, and limited treatment options.

Today with better living conditions, standards of hygiene, and modern medicine including antiviral medications and vaccines that can help stem virus spread and promote quicker recovery, this level of devastation can be avoided hopefully but not necessarily.

While different conditions exist today which help make pandemic less likely in some ways, other things make risk even higher as world’s population grows and people travel greater distances than ever before in larger numbers enabling viruses to spread more rapidly.

Seventeen years ago world contended with exactly these threats in similar virus outbreak also in China: SARS standing for severe acute respiratory syndrome caused by coronavirus.

SARS proved difficult to contain made worse by several mistakes and bad choices by Chinese government showing that factors beyond just virus science determine how bad epidemic will be.

Even with unfortunate circumstances of government deception SARS was eventually contained and total global disaster was averted once enough quarantines, travel bans, and treatment was in place.

Question many asking is has China learned lesson enough to mitigate damage this time around; China claiming to crack down on withholding information with warnings against delays and WHO praising quick response, but some experts suspect true number infected still higher than publicly reported.

Chinese government mandating face masks be worn in public places in some areas, imposing strict travel bans in several Chinese cities attempting to quarantine millions of people with urban buses, subways, ferries, and long-distance passenger transport suspended in Wuhan.

Some reports say five million people left city of Wuhan before ban was imposed; once virus is out in world it is very hard to stop with more cases popping up each day in different countries.

Very unfortunately scientists now reporting that virus can be spread in its incubation period before symptoms appear; someone may have no idea that they have virus spreading it far and wide before they even feel sick.

Ultimately what China needs to do is soul-searching about state of wild animal trade in country; on January 22nd authorities in Wuhan banned trade of live animals at wet markets but this is too little too late and in all likelihood not permanent.

Whether or not this will become global pandemic ultimately in hands of Chinese government and public health officials; as some experts have said one nation’s weak response could endanger world’s public health security.